.600 team
Old 02-26-2014, 11:39 PM   #1 (permalink)
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This team is playing .667 ball since the trade.
I'm going to make the outrageous case that the current core is at least a .600 team going forward with continued development and roster improvements. This is even with the whole league supposedly getting better all around us through the draft.

It's easy to just say the east is bad and the west is good as if that is all that matters. We would not want to play Indiana and Miami in the first round, but given a choice, neither of them would want to play the Raps either. Games against them are no longer beat-downs.

We can't ignore a couple of things either......

- 2 major pieces of the core have a year and a half in the league. A year and a half! They contribute tho' they don't even fully know what they can do yet but both have attributes that many never acquire.

- we're competing pretty well with some lousy contracts on the bench. And the current time to evaluate and develop means bolstering can be done in the right places when the cap space is there.

- I would also argue that the team has a "go time" when they put it in another gear, especially on defense towards ends of games. I think players know they have that at their disposal. It is not a good habit to wait until then, but it says they can impose their will in many instances. That is the kind of thing that bodes well for playoffs. If they sustain that "go time" in games, they can do some damage.

-There aren't going to be many more bandaids, malcontents, mis-fits and Bargnanis coming this way.

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Old 02-26-2014, 11:50 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Not trying to hijack, just adding another point to the thread.

I was thinking about this lately. Two times in our history we've hit the 47 wins mark, which is the Raps franchise high for wins in a season. Right now we sit at 32 wins. There's 25 games left. Do we have a shot at breaking that record and/or hitting that elusive 50 win plateau?

We'd have to win at least 16 games from here on out to break the record, 18 for 50. Seems slightly out of reach in my opinion. Either way, it's fun having a winning team this season.
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Old 02-26-2014, 11:58 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I think 50 wins is very possible this year. I also do not think that projects the team as a .600 team in the future. We've played the VAST majority of our games since the trade against below .500 teams. That will still be true at the end of the year. Any other year, and typically the split is more like 50-50. That alone takes a big chunk out of that winning percentage.
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:00 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Good points Ammo, especially pointing out that the Heat and Pacers would likely choose to avoid us if they could.

I think at this point the goal for this season has gone from top lottery position, to a playoff spot, to a second round birth, and now talks of a franchise record in wins.

Is the 50 win mark attainable? Sure. Will we get there? I wouldn't bet against it though its a toss up at this point.
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:02 AM   #5 (permalink)
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I think 50 wins is very possible this year. I also do not think that projects the team as a .600 team in the future. We've played the VAST majority of our games since the trade against below .500 teams. That will still be true at the end of the year. Any other year, and typically the split is more like 50-50. That alone takes a big chunk out of that winning percentage.
I'm a firm believer in teams win % outweighing their strength of schedule.

At the end of the season, all teams will have played the same number of games. Playing a "worse" team doesn't always mean an easy W, and playing a better team doesn't always mean a L.

Every team in the NBA has 12 of the best basketball players in the world.

Win games consistently on a nightly basis and I think that says enough about a team.

Just win games.
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:03 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Dark Knight View Post
Not trying to hijack, just adding another point to the thread.

I was thinking about this lately. Two times in our history we've hit the 47 wins mark, which is the Raps franchise high for wins in a season. Right now we sit at 32 wins. There's 25 games left. Do we have a shot at breaking that record and/or hitting that elusive 50 win plateau?

We'd have to win at least 16 games from here on out to break the record, 18 for 50. Seems slightly out of reach in my opinion. Either way, it's fun having a winning team this season.

Would be tough to do but anything is possible. A lot of home games left vs tougher teams and the road games are mostly against lesser teams to say the least(Only road game left vs winning team right now is @Miami, rest are below .500). Still, it wound mean this team showing up every game, and that doesn't happen in the NBA.

18-7 to end the year for 50wins? That is an 72% winning%. I'm thinking they finish around 15-10, going 47-35.

Last edited by RaptorsandBuckeye FaN; 02-27-2014 at 12:08 AM.
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:03 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by DanH View Post
I think 50 wins is very possible this year. I also do not think that projects the team as a .600 team in the future. We've played the VAST majority of our games since the trade against below .500 teams. That will still be true at the end of the year. Any other year, and typically the split is more like 50-50. That alone takes a big chunk out of that winning percentage.
We had the 5th toughest schedule in the NBA leading up to the all-star break so not sure about the VAST majority being under .500

Anyway, us going 16-9 is probably a stretch but certainly possibly. The other day i projected we'd go 15-10 though, so why not 16-9 i suppose. I hope we break 48 wins. Would be nice
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:13 AM   #8 (permalink)
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We had the 5th toughest schedule in the NBA leading up to the all-star break so not sure about the VAST majority being under .500
This. We were 6 and 13 when Gay was traded. It was a tough schedule but we could have gone at least 9-10 or 10-9 if that trade was made in October for example.
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Old 02-27-2014, 12:21 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Don't forget that this refers to the team going forward and the current core. Lowry is now a controlled pit bull. If he is back and the millions wasted on the bench come into play, along with youth currently playing on raw talent learning to play, I don't see any reasons why promises to spend into the tax won't be met. But not spending on Bargnanis and Gays Turkoglus. I see them more along the lines of an Indiana (with more money) where there is a machine-like system and a depth that devastates.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:49 AM   #10 (permalink)
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So far we've been extremely lucky with lack of injuries
50 wins this season? Don't think so.
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Old 02-27-2014, 02:45 AM   #11 (permalink)
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We were a .500 team last season after trading for Rudy gay. That clearly didn't work out well to start this season. All I know is, this team plays playoff basketball. Similarly to the bulls, we like the halfcourt slower pace, yet have personnel to push it in the fastbreak. Another great thing is guys actually know their roles without any egos In the way
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Old 02-27-2014, 03:02 AM   #12 (permalink)
playoffs please dont end

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We play playoff basketball in 4th quarter maybe. Sometimes.
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Old 02-27-2014, 06:55 AM   #13 (permalink)
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I think we still have some ways to go before becoming a .600 team. The East is incredibly weak this year. This led to probably an inflated win-loss record. If you look to our record vs. Western Conference, it's at a respectable 10-12. Once the East tightens up, I think that's where our record will be around.

We still got to improve, otherwise we are in for disappointment.
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Old 02-27-2014, 07:03 AM   #14 (permalink)
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I think we still have some ways to go before becoming a .600 team. The East is incredibly weak this year. This led to probably an inflated win-loss record. If you look to our record vs. Western Conference, it's at a respectable 10-12. Once the East tightens up, I think that's where our record will be around.

We still got to improve, otherwise we are in for disappointment.
I doubt anyone thinks this will be the team going forward next season. MU will not be content just tinkering in the summer. This is just the beginning of hopefully an upward trajectory.
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Old 02-27-2014, 08:05 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I doubt anyone thinks this will be the team going forward next season. MU will not be content just tinkering in the summer. This is just the beginning of hopefully an upward trajectory.
I actually hope that our team is pretty similar next year. We don't have a lot of flexibility to make many moves. Hopefully we can re-sign Lowry, keep the core, finish in the top half of the east next year and then make some moves for the following year when we have a bit more flexibility.
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Old 02-27-2014, 09:56 AM   #16 (permalink)
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I'm with Dan, until I see some success against team better than .500, I'll stay a bit on the skeptical side. Since the trade, we played 12 such teams and our record is 4-8. On the other 27 games we are 22-5!

So we absolutely beat the crap of bad teams and are pretty bad against better than .500 teams. And those wins against over .500 teams came mostly in december when it's conceivable that we were not taken very seriously, so it was possible to sneak up on people (we also played our best that month).

The upcoming stretch will feature a bunch of games against better teams, so it will be a better indicator - the best until the playoffs.


Still .600 is absolutely doable (Hollinger's playoff odds projects us to finish 48-34, which is basically .600). However, that's not a reliable indicator for the future. NYK won 50+ games last season, kept the same team and look where they are now. If we keep the same players for another season, it's very unlikely we'll match the same record, because the east will improve (hard not to, but just the addition of rondo/rose/horford will be enough to make 3 teams dramatically better).
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Old 02-27-2014, 10:06 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I'm with Dan, until I see some success against team better than .500, I'll stay a bit on the skeptical side. Since the trade, we played 12 such teams and our record is 4-8. On the other 27 games we are 22-5!

So we absolutely beat the crap of bad teams and are pretty bad against better than .500 teams. And those wins against over .500 teams came mostly in december when it's conceivable that we were not taken very seriously, so it was possible to sneak up on people (we also played our best that month).

The upcoming stretch will feature a bunch of games against better teams, so it will be a better indicator - the best until the playoffs.


Still .600 is absolutely doable (Hollinger's playoff odds projects us to finish 48-34, which is basically .600). However, that's not a reliable indicator for the future. NYK won 50+ games last season, kept the same team and look where they are now. If we keep the same players for another season, it's very unlikely we'll match the same record, because the east will improve (hard not to, but just the addition of rondo/rose/horford will be enough to make 3 teams dramatically better).
The first step in winning is beating teams the majority of the time that are below you. We're 3 months into that step......next step is adding more talent and beging to beat all teams consistently. Let's just hope we're at the begining of a long arc of winning basketball.

I still say the summer of 2015 (rebrand, upcoming all-star game, 20th anniversary) is when this gets ratcheted up to try and seriously compete with the best teams in the league. The next year is about internal growth, aquire assets, picks and a little more depth.

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Old 02-27-2014, 10:06 AM   #18 (permalink)
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I'm with Dan, until I see some success against team better than .500, I'll stay a bit on the skeptical side. Since the trade, we played 12 such teams and our record is 4-8. On the other 27 games we are 22-5!

So we absolutely beat the crap of bad teams and are pretty bad against better than .500 teams. And those wins against over .500 teams came mostly in december when it's conceivable that we were not taken very seriously, so it was possible to sneak up on people (we also played our best that month).

The upcoming stretch will feature a bunch of games against better teams, so it will be a better indicator - the best until the playoffs.


Still .600 is absolutely doable (Hollinger's playoff odds projects us to finish 48-34, which is basically .600). However, that's not a reliable indicator for the future. NYK won 50+ games last season, kept the same team and look where they are now. If we keep the same players for another season, it's very unlikely we'll match the same record, because the east will improve (hard not to, but just the addition of rondo/rose/horford will be enough to make 3 teams dramatically better).
Knicks added Bargnani...
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Old 02-27-2014, 11:42 AM   #19 (permalink)
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I'm with Dan, until I see some success against team better than .500, I'll stay a bit on the skeptical side. Since the trade, we played 12 such teams and our record is 4-8. On the other 27 games we are 22-5!
This is what I mean by vast majority. 27 games out of 39 is 70% - that's a pretty big majority in the context of schedule. Hard to have a much better ratio than that (and it maintains out to the end of the year).
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Old 02-27-2014, 11:47 AM   #20 (permalink)
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For example, if the team is 22-5 against below .500 teams, and 4-8 against above .500 teams, as moremilk stated, and you apply those winning rates across a definitively average season (41 games against winning teams, 41 against losing ones), that projects to 33-8 against sub-500 teams and 14-27 against above .500 teams. For a total record of 47 wins. Very nice, but not .600. And that's assuming we keep up the dominance against sub-500 teams.
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