30% chance Chris Bosh will be elected to the HOF
Old 02-19-2010, 03:40 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Exclamation 30% chance Chris Bosh will be elected to the HOF

Bosh has a 30% probability according to Basketball Reference.

They also explain their formula.

Kind of interesting.

Here is a list of active players.

LINK - Basketball-Reference.com
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Old 02-19-2010, 03:44 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Old 02-19-2010, 03:47 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Must mean its 50+ %
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Old 02-19-2010, 03:47 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Agent Zero, Hill and Parker all have a higher percentage
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Old 02-19-2010, 03:52 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Gilbert's percentage is for the NRA hall of fame.
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Old 02-19-2010, 03:54 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Old 02-19-2010, 03:59 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Gilbert Arenas? Really?
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Old 02-19-2010, 04:01 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Did you guys even read how the the formula works or his explanation?
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Old 02-19-2010, 04:30 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Without looking at this 'formula' I think Bosh's chance improve if he stays here or goes somewhere that he's the man. If he joins a better player(Wade, Lebron) his chances diminish with his numbers.

Just my opinion.
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Old 02-19-2010, 04:38 PM   #10 (permalink)
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i know these things are for fun but 6 years ago, i would have had Jermaine O'Neal going into the hall of fame...same with grant hill 10 years ago...but injuries can destroy a careers without warning...
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Old 02-19-2010, 04:55 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Sick, Wicked and Nasty! View Post
Without looking at this 'formula' I think Bosh's chance improve if he stays here or goes somewhere that he's the man. If he joins a better player(Wade, Lebron) his chances diminish with his numbers.

Just my opinion.
I looked at the formula for you - and winning would serve him better than stats from here on in. If he wins enough to be an MVP candidate, or if he wins a championship, then he would triple his chances.
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Old 02-19-2010, 05:25 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I looked at the formula for you - and winning would serve him better than stats from here on in. If he wins enough to be an MVP candidate, or if he wins a championship, then he would triple his chances.
I agree with the MVP, I dont' think there are any mvps not in the hall are there? He wont' be an mvp playing with Lebron or Wade though...possible if he doesn't.

As for championships... that's going to depend on keeping his numbers up to. Matt Bonner has a ring but he'll never make the hall.
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Old 02-19-2010, 06:12 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Did you guys even read how the the formula works or his explanation?
The formula should take into account stats like steals and blocks (for example, without them, how do you separate Bosh from Zach Randolph).

Another key omission from his formula IMO would be average # of wins per season, or, if you want to have a more fixed formula, # of seasons with 50, 55, and 60+ wins on their team.

------

Nevertheless, his formula seems to do a pretty solid job separating the wheat from the chaff - the ones I'd say who are unworthy on the top 15 would be TMac (career cut short by some injuries, and also the fact that he's never been out of the first round), Vince (surefire Hall of Famer by season 3,4, historic pussy after that) and Grant Hill (who was another surefire HOF'er before he destroyed his ankle).

...Amare's also way too high.
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Old 02-19-2010, 06:21 PM   #14 (permalink)
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That was a purely mathematical/statistical exercise. Of course, committing a felony would be a deciding factor in not getting into HOF, but this particular model doesn't take it into account...

Meanwhile, IMHO, the chances of T-Mac or Vince being enshrined are slim to none no matter what the formula says, so I'd seriously question the model anyway.
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Old 02-19-2010, 06:38 PM   #15 (permalink)
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That was a purely mathematical/statistical exercise. Of course, committing a felony would be a deciding factor in not getting into HOF, but this particular model doesn't take it into account...

Meanwhile, IMHO, the chances of T-Mac or Vince being enshrined are slim to none no matter what the formula says, so I'd seriously question the model anyway.
That was my first thought, Vince and Tmac to high, Arenas' chances are 0. Surprised Lebron and Wade are a "lock", but Carmelo is down with Bosh.

Unless he gets injured, Melo will be there in the end.
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Old 02-19-2010, 06:49 PM   #16 (permalink)
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wow AI as 100% chance. Sure the "formula" predicts it, but really?
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Old 02-19-2010, 07:28 PM   #17 (permalink)
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wow AI as 100% chance. Sure the "formula" predicts it, but really?
ROY, MVP, 11x All-Star, 4x scoring champion.

Need I say more?
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Old 02-19-2010, 08:27 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I did not read all of these formulas, but I am assuming this is not about projected stats, projected all-star appearances, etc. i.e. if this were Shaq's 3rd year, he would not be a lock because he does not have all of those numbers over a prolonged period? So as a career moves forward, that number would climb towards 1.0 if you had a decent career.
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Old 02-19-2010, 10:37 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Sick, Wicked and Nasty! View Post
I agree with the MVP, I dont' think there are any mvps not in the hall are there? He wont' be an mvp playing with Lebron or Wade though...possible if he doesn't.

As for championships... that's going to depend on keeping his numbers up to. Matt Bonner has a ring but he'll never make the hall.
I'm strictly talking about how things are weighed in this thing. It's not just MVP's, but being considered strongly. And Wade's championship gives him a much better chance than Bosh according to these stats.

I don't know what explains Vince, T-Mac and Arenas those aside from stats so who knows for sure.
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Old 02-19-2010, 11:07 PM   #20 (permalink)
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ROY, MVP, 11x All-Star, 4x scoring champion.

Need I say more?
OKay maybeno so farfetched, still a little, not 100% I am sure of that. HOw bout some other people. Gil has no chance in hell
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