2013-2014 Projected RAPM [Reddit]
Old 08-12-2013, 08:52 PM   #1 (permalink)
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2013-14 RAPM Projected Win Totals:Toronto Raptors edition : nba
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Old 08-12-2013, 09:19 PM   #2 (permalink)
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You can tell this guy doesn't actually watch us, he thinks Hansbrough and Acy will play equal minutes.
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Old 08-12-2013, 09:28 PM   #3 (permalink)
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You can tell this guy doesn't actually watch us, he thinks Hansbrough and Acy will play equal minutes.
And that Gray is our main backup Center. I just don't see him playing 25% of the minutes at that position. He also thinks Buycks will play more than Augustine which I don't see, at least to start the season. I suppose if Buycks really impresses in training camp but we'll see,
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Old 08-12-2013, 10:44 PM   #4 (permalink)
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The good news is, if you guys figure out a correct minutes breakdown, the analysis can be easily modified to provide a more accurate prediction.
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Old 08-12-2013, 11:12 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I think the results are a little skewed because the stat heavily favours Amir and Lowry.
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Old 08-13-2013, 06:32 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Hilarious.
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Old 08-13-2013, 02:22 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Interesting.

Something like this (but more in detail and thought out as far as minutes and injuries) is done by this blog NBA Couchside
However, they haven't done the Raptors yet.

Other than DeMar, 75% is high for anyone. Gay might get there, but he hasn't been at 75% for 4 years. Lowry has never been over 66% and was at 51% last year. 75% is the iron man territory.

I'll say there will be quite a bit of small ball and
g Lowry 60%, DJA 30%, Buick 10%
g DeMar 75%, Ross 35% (part at 3)
f Gay 70% (part at 4), Novak 40% (part at 4), Fields 15%
f Amir 55% (part at 5), Hansbrough 30%, Acy 10%
c Jonas 60%, Gray 10%
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Old 08-13-2013, 02:30 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Yeah 75% is essentially 36mpg and not missing any games. Not an easy feat.
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Old 08-13-2013, 02:53 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Following that same reddit calculation but with my guesstimates of play time:

Lowry 60% 167.48
DJA 30% -83.74
Buick 10% -21.88
DeMar 75% -73.55
Ross 35% -113.54
Gay 70% 21.12
Novak 40% -51.3
Fields 15% -4.53
Amir 55% 195.01
Hansbrough 30% -15.84
Acy 10% 0.75
Jonas 60% -58.84
Gray 10% -24.9

Total -63.76, which translates to 39-43 record in his formula.

And if we add his suggested significant improvement of Gay and Jonas, it gets to 44-38.

Looks like a pretty reasonable projection / formula.
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Old 08-13-2013, 03:18 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I asked an octopus named Paul. He picked the option where they win in the range of 40-50. Paul's fucking smart. And has eight legs. Or arms. I can't really tell. But still - eight - that's pretty cool.
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Old 08-13-2013, 03:30 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I asked an octopus named Paul. He picked the option where they win in the range of 40-50. Paul's fucking smart. And has eight legs. Or arms. I can't really tell. But still - eight - that's pretty cool.
:gay:
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Old 08-13-2013, 03:40 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Well, these octopuses run multi-billion gambling businesses. :P
While it does seem a bit of abracadabra at first glance, Vegas lines are based in large part on stats projections, including pre-season lines. Professional gamblers do the same (google Haralabos Voulgaris) and the best ones make a lot of money over the long run.

Obviously what the bloggers and fans are doing with WARP, PER and such is probably 5 years outdated compared to the systems that Vegas is currently using.

But in general, predictions through stats is pretty fun and interesting, and clearly not a complete lunacy.

Last edited by woodchuck; 08-13-2013 at 03:43 PM.
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Old 08-13-2013, 03:55 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Yeah. If you don't want speculation, you should probably not go on any basketball related forum during the offseason.
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Old 08-13-2013, 04:21 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by woodchuck View Post
Well, these octopuses run multi-billion gambling businesses. :P
While it does seem a bit of abracadabra at first glance, Vegas lines are based in large part on stats projections, including pre-season lines. Professional gamblers do the same (google Haralabos Voulgaris) and the best ones make a lot of money over the long run.

Obviously what the bloggers and fans are doing with WARP, PER and such is probably 5 years outdated compared to the systems that Vegas is currently using.

But in general, predictions through stats is pretty fun and interesting, and clearly not a complete lunacy.
It's not complete lunacy, but I can't see much fun in doing what professional gamblers do. There are very few of them that make decent margins in any case. They make a lot of money by betting a lot of money over the long run. I guess that's nice if you have a lot of money.

This stuff all points to a future of robot/player hybrids, or maybe just robots playing sports, in that it is another way human elements are removed from what has been a rather joyous and agonizing human endeavour. I think that is a little sad, and will stick with my octopus friend. And I mean stick.


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Yeah. If you don't want speculation, you should probably not go on any basketball related forum during the offseason.
Ok. I'll busy myself by googling Haralabos Voulgaris then if that's ok. I'm not sure where you get the idea that I don't want any speculation. I believe I've contributed a fair amount on my own just today alone. But Nyah Nyah Nyah Nyah right back at you.
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Old 08-13-2013, 04:24 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
I asked an octopus named Paul. He picked the option where they win in the range of 40-50. Paul's fucking smart. And has eight legs. Or arms. I can't really tell. But still - eight - that's pretty cool.
I get it ... crazy 8
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Old 08-13-2013, 05:39 PM   #16 (permalink)
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It's not complete lunacy, but I can't see much fun in doing what professional gamblers do. There are very few of them that make decent margins in any case. They make a lot of money by betting a lot of money over the long run. I guess that's nice if you have a lot of money.

This stuff all points to a future of robot/player hybrids, or maybe just robots playing sports, in that it is another way human elements are removed from what has been a rather joyous and agonizing human endeavour. I think that is a little sad, and will stick with my octopus friend. And I mean stick.
Haha. In a way that's true, I guess. We may have no Iversons and Monta Ellises starting in the league 20 years from now. Which will be somewhat sad, because for all the inefficiency and crazy shots of these types of players, there's also a lot of excitement.

On the other hand, without stats guys, we wouldn't have the current Spurs system, we wouldn't have the Pacers defense, or the Rockets offensive structure. Some teams are running brilliant stats driven schemes that are both effective and interesting to watch.

There's a lot of over-doing when it comes to stats. Especially on the media end and especially by a lot of bloggers where it's often just blind posting of stats without understanding and interpreting what they mean.
But then we have guys like Zach Lowe or Voulgaris who provide some amazing in part stats-driven insight, and we see teams doing some fun stats-driven things. There's a lot of good.
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Old 08-13-2013, 08:28 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by woodchuck View Post
Well, these octopuses run multi-billion gambling businesses. :P
While it does seem a bit of abracadabra at first glance, Vegas lines are based in large part on stats projections, including pre-season lines. Professional gamblers do the same (google Haralabos Voulgaris) and the best ones make a lot of money over the long run.

Obviously what the bloggers and fans are doing with WARP, PER and such is probably 5 years outdated compared to the systems that Vegas is currently using.

But in general, predictions through stats is pretty fun and interesting, and clearly not a complete lunacy.
I think the initial odds may be based on stats, but don't they alter the odds after the bets start coming in to account for team biases? If they start seeing a lot of people taking 100-1 odds on Lakers winning it all, they will probably start lowering the odds to protect themselves against a surprise win by the lakers.
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Old 08-13-2013, 09:18 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I think the initial odds may be based on stats, but don't they alter the odds after the bets start coming in to account for team biases? If they start seeing a lot of people taking 100-1 odds on Lakers winning it all, they will probably start lowering the odds to protect themselves against a surprise win by the lakers.
Yep, besides, if people are spending, why not raise the price? And they adjust initial odds based on these expectations too. Casual fans are going to bet on some teams anyway. Most casuals will bet on the Heat, Kobe fanboys will bet on the Lakers, Chicago fans will bet on Rose. In those cases, it makes sense for Vegas to set ridiculous odds, since they are going to pay anyway. So the Heat odds to three-peat seem extremely exaggerated (2-1), while Indiana odds (15-1) are probably closer to actual projections.
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Old 08-13-2013, 10:07 PM   #19 (permalink)
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they're also capping the odds, in the real world, a team like philly this year probably has less than 1 in a billion odds to win the title (seriously) and their odds are still less than 1000/1.
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Old 08-13-2013, 10:19 PM   #20 (permalink)
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What they are doing is maximizing betting amounts, and minimizing payouts. There is a reason the margins for winning over time are so small.
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