MLB/Jays Thread - Page 493
Old 12-17-2012, 02:04 PM   #9841 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jaRydIeeP View Post
Fangraphs says that the velocity on Dickey's knuckleball was more or less the same between 2010-2012.

R.A. Dickey PitchFx Velocity Graphs KN | FanGraphs Baseball
How do you even look at those charts and claim it's the same?
Seriously?
Look again.
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:18 PM   #9842 (permalink)
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That’s twice now. Twice teams have done the unthinkable, at least by recent baseball standards. Twice teams have said, “Enough with our precious prospects. We’re going for it.”


First, it was the Kansas City Royals, trading one of the game’s most promising young hitters, Wil Myers, and a highly regarded young pitcher, Jake Odorizzi, in a deal for Tampa Bay right-handers James Shields and Wade Davis.

Now, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays, who are on the verge of moving the game’s top young catcher, Travis D’Arnaud, and a gifted young pitcher, Noah Syndergaard, in a deal for National League Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.

I liked the Royals’ trade because they acquired 40 percent of their 2013 rotation without giving up a single major leaguer. I’ve had a more difficult time coming around to the Jays’ deal. But I get it, and I applaud it. In fact, I’m starting to love it.

The trade is on the verge of completion — Dickey agreed to a two-year, $25 million extension Monday, pending a physical — and the sheer idea of it is a window into the Jays’ soul. Once general manager Alex Anthopoulos made his blockbuster with the Miami Marlins, there was no turning back. A team is either in or it’s out. The middle is no place to be.

The New York Yankees are old. The Boston Red Sox are in transition. The Blue Jays’ time is now, even if this all seems a little rushed, even if the team’s threshold for Dickey arguably should have been one top prospect, not two.

Make no mistake: There is boom-or-bust potential in this trade, for both sides. The Jays could end up like the 2012 Marlins, champions of the offseason, a disaster during the regular season. But this is the right moment for them to strike, and Dickey — odd as it may sound — is the right man for them at the right time.

Forget that Dickey is 38, and that he’s a knuckle-baller. Consider his performance — not just last season, when he won the National League Cy Young Award, but the past three years, when he averaged more than 200 innings per season and produced a 2.95 ERA.

This isn’t a fluke, folks. If Dickey was a conventional thrower — and yes, a bit younger — few would question this trade. Dickey’s strikeout rate increased in each of the past three seasons. His hit rate decreased, and his walk rate remained stable and low.

He’s athletic, he logs innings, he throws strikes. A rival executive puts it best, saying that Dickey has “found something.” The Jays are banking on him continuing his success — and likely on a below-market contract. Remember, they won a similar bet on right fielder Jose Bautista, whom they signed to a five-year, $65 million extension after a breakout season.

Rosenthal: R.A. Dickey move shows Blue Jays know time is now - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN
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Old 12-17-2012, 04:35 PM   #9843 (permalink)
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How do you even look at those charts and claim it's the same?
Seriously?
Look again.
Average velocity within that time frame (2010-2012) was about 77 mph. There was no increase in velocity in 2012 that could have been reason for sudden spike in strikeouts.

The point is I don't see how the Jays can be sure that Dickey will perform like he did in 2012.

Don't get me wrong, as a Jays fan I sincerely hope he continues to put up Cy Young-worthy numbers. I just don't see it happening.

IMO, Mets are selling high on Dickey and getting two blue chip prospects in return.
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Old 12-17-2012, 05:42 PM   #9844 (permalink)
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Toronto fans are never happy. Let's all just enjoy the ride.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:09 PM   #9845 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaRydIeeP View Post
Average velocity within that time frame (2010-2012) was about 77 mph. There was no increase in velocity in 2012 that could have been reason for sudden spike in strikeouts.
Unless I'm missing it that chart doesn't give exact numbers.
By my crude calculations his average speed went up over 1mph on average.
That's REALLY HARD to do as a knuckle baller, and certainly enough to see the large increases in performance he had, also getting more repetitions knowing how to throw it etc.
Quote:
The point is I don't see how the Jays can be sure that Dickey will perform like he did in 2012.
They aren't, but they are projecting it to be somewhere close.
Could he tank? sure.
So could all the prospects.
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Don't get me wrong, as a Jays fan I sincerely hope he continues to put up Cy Young-worthy numbers. I just don't see it happening.
Why?
What do you have to suggest it would get worse?
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IMO, Mets are selling high on Dickey and getting two blue chip prospects in return.
Agreed.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:10 PM   #9846 (permalink)
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R.A. Dickey‏@RADickey43

Looking forward to a new chapter with the Jays.

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Jon Morosi‏@jonmorosi
RA Dickey trade official. He receives $29 million guarantee over next 3 seasons. Deal includes $12 million club option for 2016. @MLBONFOX
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:18 PM   #9847 (permalink)
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.
not bad, not bad at all

i wonder if gose will give him his #
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:03 PM   #9848 (permalink)
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10 million/year for the reigning NL Cy Young winner has me feeling better about the deal. Never knew the Mets picked up their club option for the upcoming season.

Finally, 3 years of quality baseball in Toronto
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:56 PM   #9849 (permalink)
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Finally, 3 years of quality baseball in Toronto
At a bare minimum IMO. I'd like to think it will create a winning culture here, and make Toronto a desirable spot again, which will drive future success in free agency. Not to mention our scouting department will continue to do a stellar job of stockpiling prospects and acquiring talent from elsewhere in the league. I really believe (knock on wood) that this is the start of something that will last.
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Old 12-17-2012, 11:50 PM   #9850 (permalink)
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Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BOVADA:

(odds updated 12/17/12)

Toronto Blue Jays
8/1

Los Angeles Angels
17/2

Los Angeles Dodgers
17/2

Washington Nationals
9/1

Detroit Tigers
10/1

Cincinnati Reds
12/1

New York Yankees
12/1

Texas Rangers
12/1

San Francisco Giants
14/1

Philadelphia Phillies
15/1

2013 World Series Odds | Vegas Favorites To Win World Series Championship
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:15 AM   #9851 (permalink)
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8/1?!?!

Boys, welcome to the big leagues.
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:39 AM   #9852 (permalink)
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I don't want to talk about it

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Old 12-18-2012, 03:13 AM   #9853 (permalink)
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8/1 chance? time for vancouver to get a mlb team
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Old 12-18-2012, 06:33 AM   #9854 (permalink)
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we shouldn't be favorites to win it all. That type of statement is a bit silly and screams 'overhyping'.

I agree the team looks good no great on paper, but that can only carry so much weight.

I still see teams like anaheim, detroit, dodgers and giants as the favorites. We're a team that's knocking on the door.
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:16 AM   #9855 (permalink)
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We still don't know how these guys will play given the pressure and expectations. They're paid to deal with pressure, but who knows if they'll be able to. None of the guys (we had before this winter)have played meaningful baseball late in the season before.
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:26 AM   #9856 (permalink)
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We still don't know how these guys will play given the pressure and expectations. They're paid to deal with pressure, but who knows if they'll be able to. None of the guys (we had before this winter)have played meaningful baseball late in the season before.
Wasn't Buehrle with the ChiSox when they won the WS?
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:39 AM   #9857 (permalink)
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Yeah I think so. I was referring to our guys I.e. not the ones we picked up this winter.
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Old 12-18-2012, 11:05 AM   #9858 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by fancylad View Post
we shouldn't be favorites to win it all. That type of statement is a bit silly and screams 'overhyping'.

I agree the team looks good no great on paper, but that can only carry so much weight.

I still see teams like anaheim, detroit, dodgers and giants as the favorites. We're a team that's knocking on the door.
Dodgers? Did you not see that garbage last year? They are not favorites.
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Old 12-18-2012, 11:23 AM   #9859 (permalink)
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Yeah and fancy forgot the team that is going to win it all anyways, the Cincinnati Reds! :cookie:

Last edited by RaptorsandBuckeye FaN; 12-18-2012 at 11:35 AM.
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Old 12-18-2012, 11:32 AM   #9860 (permalink)
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Yeah and he forgot the team that is going to win it all anyways, the Cincinnati Reds! :cookie:
if I was a betting man thats where I would put my money
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