spenda

Hey guys, I'm fairly new to RaptorsForum but so far I've really enjoyed trolling along. I wasn't quite sure where I'd post this but I like to keep track of my sportsbetting results and I felt this was the best place for it.

Anyone is encouraged to give me their thoughts, especially if you feel like I could use the information. The way I bet is simple, I try to find a few games each night where I have a distinct advantage on a bet. Some people feel they have to bet on every game or line, I am certainly not one of them. Some nights there will be 10+ games running and I'll place one bet. Other nights there will be four games and I'll bet on all four. All that matters is that my bets have great reasoning behind them.

My bankroll is on a 2% unit system. This means that 1-unit=1/50th of my bankroll. The maximum I can ever bet on a game is 3 units (or 6% of my roll) and I'll never risk more than 20% of my roll on any given night. I'd rather not say what my bankroll is at the moment, but let's just say it's not peanuts.

I tend to stay away from parlays and teasers you can read about them here" However, everyone once in a while I'll make a 2 or 3-team teaser if I feel like I have an edge.

I'll post my thoughts on a few games I'm going to bet later tonight. For now I use Sportsbook.com and Bet365 to place my bets, as my options are slightly limited being an American.

Each post will include my win-loss-unit percentages.

For instance if 15 bets from now I've won 9, lost 6, tied non and am up 8 units, it would look like this:

YTD: 9-6-0
Units won: 8

Dr. J. Naismith

Hmm .... I'm definitely interested to know more about these betting sites. I'm not a gambler per se, but might be tempted to start a little betting myself.

Looking forward to your tips and suggestions spenda.

iRaptor

So are you talking about over unders or that other thing where its like today..

Denver
Utah -9

Gurk

Can someone explain to me the thing that iRaptor put, -9. What does that mean???

spenda

I did a write-up for you guys in the links in the above banner, hopefully it answers most of these questions, if not I'd be more than happy to go into greater detail.

Click below!

NBA Sports Betting

spenda

I'll be doing everything, o/u's, straight bets, money-lines, etc...

I have to say I'm quite surprised the Jazz are a 9 point favorite, even at home. I'll look into that game.

Gurk

Thanks spenda

iRaptor

What about money wise?... Lets say I pick the jazz and they win. My bet is $50.

What does the site take?
how much do i win?

spenda

This are a lot of factors to what you would win. The simplest answer is if you wanted to win $50 you'll generally have to bet $55. This is what the (-110) is all about next to a wager. The sportsbooks call this the "juice" and it is their cut. This is what makes them money.

(-110) means in order to win $100 a player has to bet $110. If he/she loses the bet they lose $110, if he/she wins, they gain $100.

Some sites have less juice, such as -103 or -105. This is precisely why I bet on more than one site, it gives me the possibility to find juice specials. It may not seem like much but over years and years of betting finding the same line with less juice can mean a lot of money.

Sometimes a line might look like this

Raptors -6 (-105)
Kings +6 (-115)

In this case the Raptors are a 6 point favorite and the juice is discounted on their side while increased on the Kings. Why? Well, one reason is that the Raptors are not getting enough money bet on them as a 6 point favorite. Thefore, instead of making them a 4 or 5 point favorite, the books try to entice more action by lowering the juice on them and hiking the juice on the Kings. Now, in order to win $100 a bettor would have to place $105 on the Raptors or $115 on the Kings.

I hope that answers some questions, basically the number inside the parentheses tells someone what they have to bet to win $100. If the number is every positive, i.e. (+125) that is how much a person would win if they bet $100. These are called money-line bets, where there are no points (like the -6 we saw in the above example) and the games are played straight-up. In this case you might see something like

Raptors (-220)
Kings (+200)

Notice these numbers do not match, this is because the site wouldn't make money if they did. For you to win $100 betting on the Raptors you'd have to wager $220. If you were to bet $100 on the Kings and they won the game you would take home $200 in profit.

Ugo Ferst

sports betting is for degens, be careful boys, i know many a balla that went busto cuz of it

spenda

The main thing I've learned about the NBA is that public perception seems to weight a ton in determining lines. I think the most obvious example I saw was last week when Cleveland and Houston hooked up in TX and the Cavs were a 3 point favorite. McGrady was hurt and the Cavs were rolling, which made the entire world get on the Cavs side at -3 (meaning they had to win by 4 or more for the bet to cash). What happened? Well Houston barely won, by 19.

So, what does this mean? Well it means that people, when it comes to sportsbetting, are stupid. This reminds me of a quote from Men In Black:

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."

The public, in terms of sports betting, is wrong more than they're right. It's quite amazing really. While sites should only make money off of their juice they certainly make money on the public's stupidity. Not all lines are made equal, the Cavs game is a perfect example. There vast majority of the money bet was on Cleveland's side yet the line didn't move enough to make up for the disparity. This means the sports books were taking a risk, however, it was a calculated risk. In instances such as this one you want to bet with the books, not the public. Trust me, they know a lot more than any of us.

This is how I bet, I look for spots where it would seem the sports books are taking a risk. There are many sites that offer information on the amount of action on each side of a bet. I then look at the line and see if it moves. If it doesn't, I have found a game I'm willing to bet. Most of my bets are based off of this information, not analyzing trends and player match-ups. I let the books do all of that work, and then I use their information against them.

I am not saying this is the end-all to sports betting. There is certainly more than one way to skin a cat; however, this approach has worked the best for me. One final note, I love home underdogs in sportsbetting. Unfortunately in the NBA home court advantage isn't quite what it is in other sports.

Bets I'm looking at for tonight
WAS +12.5 @ SA
The line opened at -14 and it seems more than 2/3's of the action went on the Spurs, yet, the line is down to 12.5. This is certainly interesting, the action warrants an increase in the line, not a decrease, and a 1.5 downward movement is typically a lot (although not as much in this case as spread opened at 14). I'll keep an eye, although I doubt I'd want to take this much lower. The one thing to note about the Spurs is teams tend to "back-door" cover against them quite a bit, as they don't usually blow teams out, even with big leads in the 4th quarter.

Over 208 GS@DET
The line opened at 206.5 and currently sits at 208. Interesting as it seems there has been more action on the under, at about a 3:2 clip. Generally I like to look for more of a disparity, however, when the line moves more than a point I don't need much. The reason the public is all over the under is because they see a 200+ point total in Detroit and automatically think to years past when the Pistons were stingy on D. Earlier in the year in Golden State the Pistons won 107-102. The question is how does the Warriors offensive system work on the road? Well they tend to score 11-12 points less a game on the road. OUCH, looks like I probably won't be taking this bet. Although the under may now look good, remember, no way am I betting with the public ever.

I'll update my bets later if I place them. I've been up since 2AM, so here's hoping I stay awake for a few more hours!

spenda

Anything can make you busto. However, if you use proper bankroll management (like my 2% system) you greatly reduce your risk of ruin and you tend to realize your long-term expected advantage/disadvantage.

I repeat, use proper bankroll management and you can NOT go busto.

spenda

So here's how this will go, if I bold the selection, it means I have placed the bet. If I don't bold the selection I did not pick the game or I did and fell asleep before editing the post.

Well the line keeps going down in the SA/WAS game and yet it seems like even more money is heading the Spurs way.

Certainly not one of my more confident picks but hey, I cannot start this thing and not lay any action on day 1!

WAS +12 (-110) 1 unit

Also going to bet the over in the GS/DET game, same theory, line is moving in the wrong way compared to the action. Really unsure here though, GS is playing so poorly but I wouldn't be surprised if the Pistons but up a huge number on one of the league's worst defenses.

GS/DET Over 208 (-110) 1 unit

I'm also looking to take the under in the PHO/HOU game, it's at 226 which I think would be a good line if this game was in AZ, but it's in H-town which makes me think the tempo goes more the Rockets way, sloooow. This is interesting in the sense that I rarely take a bet that seems too good to be true; however, I think the public perception of the Suns has grossly inflated their o/u totals. However, I'm too tired to do any extra research so maybe they're struggling against the o/u this year, I'm not sure.

PHO/HOU Under 226 (-110) 1 unit

I've bet against the public in all 3 bets, here's hoping the rest of the world doesn't know what they're talking about!

zachus

You must just lick your sports betting chops come March Madness time, huh?

spenda

Pretty much like Christmas, there is so much public betting involved it really helps me. I've had some big months over the course of the NCAA Tournament.

Well Day 1 didn't start out how I wanted, however, luck was on my side as I passed out on the couch before I could get bets 2 and 3 in. Either way, it proves that I'm a bit rusty betting on the NBA, which, according to a lot of cappers, is the toughest sport to bet. Luckily I'm stubborn, which means I will figure out how to beat the NBA one way or another.

One thing I like about Sportsbook.com is that they've put a "trend sheet" on each bet on their NBA Betting Lines Page. I was doing some research on sportsinsights.com and it seems like they are beginning to track line moves and winning % betting for and against (called fading) a line move. Obviously this seems huge to my success, so I'll be watching it closely. What I've found interesting is that so far no one has been profitable fading the first line move, which does not bode well for me

Therefore, I'm not sure how I'm going to bet on the NBA for the time being. Perhaps I'll just use my spidey senses and make some edumacated guesses.

First let me give a big WTF at the line in the SA/CHA game. The Spurs are ony a 5.5pt favorite at home against a sub .500 team. Sure, the Bobcats have won 6 in a row but their competition has been less than stellar including NYK, CHI, LAC, GS, SAC, and ATL. All in all that's a ridiculously easy stretch of games even if 4 of the 6 were on the road. Their previous two road games against Western Conference teams were a 10pt loss @ Phoenix and a 21 pt loss at Houston.

I really don't get this line, which usually makes me scratch my head, however I think the public could be weighting the Bobcats recent success a little too highly which might have allowed sportsbooks to set this line slightly lower than normal. However, I cannot bring myself to bet on this game. It seems like 3 out of 4 bets are on the Spurs yet the line moved down??? That's a huge question mark. I think it's best to just lay off this game.

I will bet the under, these teams have gone under all 5 times they've played, and it moved up 1.5pts, which makes me think it's an even better bet.

SA/CHA Under 179 1 unit

I am really interested to see the outcome of this game as with my old system I'd be betting 2-3 units on the Bobcats.

I plan on betting a lot on NCAA in the coming month, so I guess I'll start including that in this blog as well.