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Old 04-14-2014, 10:47 AM   #338 (permalink)
DanH
sticking to his guns... is stuck to his guns...

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Haverchuck View Post
yeah, at the time, we didn't realize that the road loss to Phoenix was acceptable, because nobody knew how good the Suns are this year. Also, the huge loss to Golden State on the road, despite being up 25+ and playing them well. Tougher sched then we realized pre-Rudy trade. The team as constructed back then was not total shit.

The truth of the matter is, if Rudy had stayed, and got his shit together a bit, we're probably still a playoff team and win 40 games with that old roster. Just much, much more boring to watch.
I think a lot of people expected exactly that going into the season. Bargs gone, Gay being decent with the starters last year (though not great, and not in a sustainable fashion), I certainly figured them to be floating around .500.

But the key to most preseason predictions was that everyone was sure Ujiri wouldn't be satisfied with a bubble team. So some people thought the team would get blown up 25 or so games in if they weren't killing it. 18 games, it turns out. What was impossible to predict was the impact of said explosion of the team. No one knew if Ujiri would be able to move Gay, or for what, or if Lowry would be the one to go, being in a contract year, or DD while his value was "peaked" (there's a bad call, huh?).

And let's not exaggerate the difficulty of those first 18 games. They were tough, but the Raps weren't exactly tossed into a wood chipper. The Bucks turned out much worse than we thought at the time. ATL as well. The Grizz were terrible early in the year, as were the Bulls, as were the Nets. Looking at this schedule now, keeping in mind how some teams started the year with injuries, etc, what would you expect with hindsight?

Boston Celtics (W)
@ Atlanta Hawks (W/L)
@ Milwaukee Bucks (W)
Miami Heat (L)
@ Charlotte Bobcats (W/L)
@ Indiana Pacers (L)
Utah Jazz (W)
@ Houston Rockets (L)
@ Memphis Grizzlies (W)
Chicago Bulls (W)
Portland Trail Blazers (L)
@ Philadelphia 76ers (W)
Washington Wizards (W/L)
Brooklyn Nets (W)
Miami Heat (L)
Denver Nuggets (W)
@ Golden State Warriors (L)
@ Phoenix Suns (W/L)

For me, I'd expect this team to win at least 8 and up to 12 of the 18 games, for an estimated 10 wins. 10-8 versus 6-12 is pretty radically different. I doubt that the team as built would have been above .500 at the end of the season. Probably right around there and sitting in 7th or 8th.
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