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Old 04-07-2014, 03:29 PM   #20 (permalink)
DanH
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Oh, wow, looking at it now, I'm really artificially damping down the player ratings here. The individual plus-minus is actually isolated from their teammate effects - so in theory, Amir, for example is a plus-4.84 when playing with 4 average teammates. So his impact on 1/5 of the game (his personal win rate) would be 5 times what I calculated. I thought looking at my earlier attempt that the ratings were too flat across the team. Let me try that again.

Player | RPM Wins/48 | RPM Wins to date

Amir | .198 | 8.7
Lowry | .185 | 10.3
Novak |.144 | 1.6
Patterson | .141 | 2.9
Fields | .139 | 0.9
Hayes | .122 | 1.4
GV | .113 | 2.8
DD | .111 | 6.7
Salmons | .056 | 1.4
Ross | .054 | 2.3
JV | .030 | 1.3
de Colo | .022 | 0.1
TH | .016 | 0.3

That results in the team summing to 43 wins, 44.3 when adjusting for SOS per Bball-ref. Also seems more valid. Points to a lot of improvement needed from Ross and JV (unsurprising, them being sophomores and all) - although that is also the most likely source of improvement, so really bodes well for the future. Certainly makes TH look bad (so yay! I'm officially biased towards this stat).

I'm impressed with Hayes and Novak in this stat. Seems they are quietly a couple of the more effective (effectively used?) players on the team.
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