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Old 04-07-2014, 02:35 PM   #19 (permalink)
DanH
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Default Wins

The average would be 0.100, as is usual with win stats.

Player | RPM Wins/48 | RPM Wins to date | Equivalent team record

Amir | .136 | 6.1 | 56-26
Lowry | .126 | 7.1 | 52-30
Novak |.110 | 1.2 | 45-37
Patterson | .108 | 2.3 | 44-38
Fields | .108 | 0.7 | 44-38
Hayes | .104 | 1.2 | 43-39
GV | .103 | 2.6 | 42-40
DD | .102 | 6.1 | 42-40
Salmons | .091 | 2.3 | 37-45
Ross | .090 | 3.8 | 37-45
JV | .083 | 3.7 | 34-48
de Colo | .080 | 0.2 | 33-49
TH | .078 | 1.5 | 32-50

As a frame of reference, I put the equivalent team wins for a team made up entirely of that calibre of player as well, since it is easier than going by individual wins.

In terms of summing wins and predicting actual success, this method seems to come up a bit short. Doesn't mean much, as it is not really a wins model. Either way though, all players (including the Gay era) summed up gives a total of 41 wins right now, when the team sits at 45. TOR does have a .496 SOS (by ESPN), or a -0.4 by Bball-ref. The ESPN SOS doesn't change much, but the Bball-ref bumps it to 42 wins. Still, undercutting it a bit. Mind you, a few wins either way falls well within the error expected. I'd like to take a quick look league wide at a few other teams and see if there's a pattern.
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