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Old 12-05-2013, 02:29 PM   #22 (permalink)
effin' ineffable

In the Paint
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Toronto
Posts: 30,070

Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
that was really not my intent ... there is no way anybody could assign perfect .500 odds. In fact, Vegas is not even trying - their odds are (afaik) just a reflection of the bets. They set an initial line which they constantly adjust based on incoming bets. That's why you get crappy teams with odds of winning a title at 125 to 1, when in reality, the odds are more like 1 million to 1 or worse (there is no conceivable way a team like the 76ers would win a title).

and , as I said in my second post (typed before your reply - just took me longer), it would actually make a lot more sense to add bias in the question. Having a perfect .500 question would make the game a perfect coin toss regardless what the participants do.
Vegas adjusts lines according to incoming bets, but they get a good feel of what will bring in bets to start with in setting the line. They go through all kinds of probabilities with regards to how bets will come in before any adjustments are made. 125-1 will bring in some money whereas 100-1 will likely bring in a fair bit less, and they cannot risk being too careless and setting 500-1 for a team that could make them pay. There are a lot of evil algorithms. I mean evil. And i think i may have absorbed a few of them with this and playing poker online.
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