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Old 11-08-2012, 12:09 PM   #35 (permalink)
upset that he is forced to write something here

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Originally Posted by DanH View Post
Lots of good ideas brought up here, and a couple I scratch my head at.

Statistically speaking, here is a breakdown of the 6 lineups that have posted a positive net points so far. The six have played a combined 42 minutes. Small sample size, but it is early in the season, and that's what you get (the most-used lineup this year has only 50 minutes to its name - the second most-used has 9).

In those 6 lineups, the players that appear most often are:
Ed Davis (5 times)
Alan Anderson (4 times)
Amir Johnson (4 times)
Jose Calderon (3 times)
Demar DeRozan (2 times)
Kyle Lowry (2 times)
John Lucas (2 times)
Landry Fields (2 times)
Terrence Ross (2 times)

As well as Gray, Bargnani, McGuire and Valanciunas once each.

The top lineup was Anderson, Davis, Johnson, Lowry, DeRozan.

The top players in terms of overall simple +/- this year are Johnson, Ross, Davis, Lucas, Gray, Anderson and Lowry, in that order.

The top players for net ORTG-DRTG are:
Lowry +33
Johnson +25
Gray +9
DeRozan +8
Davis +6
Calderon +1

And in WS/48:
Lowry .332
Amir .259
DeRozan .161
Davis .118
Gray .106

Based on the above, Johnson, Davis and Lowry are shoe-ins. So, Bargs and Val go to the bench. Jose stays there. On the wings, you have a strong case for DD and Anderson. Then on the bench you have Fields and Ross, who have both been part of good lineups but are not holding up individually.

So, Lowry, DD, Anderson, Davis, Johnson. With a second unit of Jose, Ross, Fields, Bargs, and Val. That's my vote.
While an interesting exercise and great for discussion, do you really believe that you can compare performance this way? Starters and bench players play against different caliber of opponents, and bench players get good minutes when the game has been decided and the opposing team's starters are on the bench.

Isn't deciding starters in this way similar to predicting that the Raptors are going to win the division based on their preseason record?

I'm only stating this cause there are some here who seem to believe all that you say.

Last edited by macs; 11-08-2012 at 12:11 PM.
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