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Old 10-31-2012, 07:27 AM   #114 (permalink)
effin' ineffable

In the Paint
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Toronto
Posts: 30,070

Originally Posted by Ligeia View Post
I'd say "Let's consult the polls" but I worry that, especially now, it is a lot of noise and not a lot of signal. Last I saw, Obama was doing well in Ohio but Romney was gaining in every other swing-state.

1 week away.
Romney stopped gaining about a week ago. Nate Silver breaks it down pretty incredibly well. He uses a bunch of computer simulations to get beyond noise. It really is incredibly hard for Mitt to win without Ohio. My only problem is that Ohio would be precisely where the vote could get rigged. Exit polls from the last two elections show a big variance with the actual results, and there are countless stories about voter suppression there. And I think there will be no exit polls conducted there this time around. Still, even with Ohio, if Romney doesn't have continued momentum, he can lose. We're looking at a likely 2000 sort of scenario then.
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