ClutchCity

If the game was tied, it would make sense to milk the clock and guarantee yourself the last shot. However, if you're down 1, that strategy doesn't make much sense. History tells us that a team is more likely to miss than to make a basket on any given possession. That's why it doesn't make much sense to hold the ball until the last second if you're down. Defence will be fully set, you will most likely not get a good shot off, and you only have one opportunity to win. It makes much more sense to take the shot with enough time remaining for you to grab an offensive rebound in case of a miss. If you score off the initial shot, you play D and hope the other team misses. You have the play the percentages. Had Durant missed that last second shot, would you be making the same argument? Think about how good the D was against Durant's gamewinner. He got lucky. You HAVE TO play the percentages.

With your strategy, it's do or die on what would most likely be a low percentage shot (teams shoot lower percentages as the clock winds down). In these late game situations, the league average is about 28% FG (24 seconds or less with a chance to tie or take the lead) if I remember correctly. With the strategy Dallas had, you not only have the initial opportunity to take the lead, but you have a chance at an offensive rebound. Usually, defences will swarm the shooter hard on last-second shots because if timed correctly, there's not much opportunity there for an offensive rebound. Defense knows this. They will time their doubles and most of the time be able to force a bad shot. Going earlier in the shot clock will prevent this and usually lead to a higher percentage shot than a last second shot. And if the defence does swarm the shooter when you go early in the shot clock, you'll have a pretty good chance at an offensive rebound and it will most likely lead to a high percentage shot whether it's a tip, or it's the offensive rebounder going back up, or a possible kickout leading to an open shot. That's another chance to take the lead with Dallas' strategy. And if you miss and fail to grab the offensive rebound, you can still foul and at worst have a chance to tie the game with a three. Even if you have no timeouts left like Dallas, you can still have enough time to set up a three pointer for the tie because you have enough time on the clock. Usually, it's easier to set up a three in semi-transition or running full-court rather than out of a timeout. And it's possible for Dallas to miss the initial shot, get the offensive rebound, and miss off a kickout, and still foul with about 4 or 5 seconds left in the game. With no timeouts left, that's still a decent amount of time to get a shot off especially if Terry or someone leaks out after the free throws. That's at least 2 chances to win/tie and up to 3 chances to win/tie. Not only will you have more opportunities, but you will have better looks. I think Dallas' strategy was perfect, Durant just got lucky.