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Old 04-21-2012, 06:18 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Ganter: Can Colangelo afford to be patient this summer?

As it stands now, the Raptors will finish somewhere between third and ninth from the bottom in the NBA.

In the draft lottery that will earn the Raptors anywhere from a 15.6% shot at the first overall pick for finishing 27th to a 1.7% chance should they move up to 21st.

So yes, there is a slightly better chance of landing Anthony Davis if they lose their remaining games.

You can also argue that the higher you pick the better chance you have of drafting a superior player. And if drafting were an exact science you would be right, but of course it isn’t.

Fact is what this team does over the final three games is almost irrelevant.

If there is a chance to land Davis, it’s extremely long odds one way or the other. It’s a shot in the dark.

And after Davis the argument can be made there is no quick fix in this draft. The drop off after him is substantial.

The Raptors, as we mentioned, might trade their first pick.

They will already be adding Jonas Valanciunas next season. Despite all that you have heard about his exploits at the under-19 FIBA world championship and later the senior men’s Eurobasket championship, Valanciunas will require time and plenty of patience before he’s NBA ready.

Now throw another first-round selection from this year’s draft into the mix. That’s two roster spots taken up by players who likely won’t contribute much in their first season in the league.

Then factor in GM Bryan Colangelo. Colangelo will be in the second year of a two-year extension and you have to wonder if he can afford to be that patient.

Does he trade the pick?
It’s about this time that probably half the Raptors fan base throws up its hands and screams at the top of their lungs, “No, heavens, no. A thousand times no.”

You’ve waited this long for a contender, you’re willing to stay the course, right?

The Raptors, as an organization, is not. At least all signs point that way.

From Colangelo who needs to see immediate progress to Dwane Casey who wants it sooner rather the later, the more likely play is to package the pick with one of your existing assets and turn it into an experienced NBA veteran.

The kind who has already established himself in the league and doesn’t need to be brought up to speed. The kind who can help you right away.

Bring a second rookie into the fold and you’re not only not going to be able to help him as much, you’re going to take away from the help you can give Valanciunas.

Obviously if the Raptors do luck out and somehow land that No. 1 pick that brings with it Anthony Davis, all bets are off.

Otherwise this just might be the path the Raptors choose to take.
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