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Old 04-19-2012, 12:11 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Raptors Dwane Casey one of the best coaches in the NBA?

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Obviously, there has to be a better way of accounting for the raw talent on a team beyond simply using the franchise's previous W-L. And that's where Daniel Myers' Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus comes in. In essence, ASPM is a boxscore-based, more stable version of Regularized Plus/Minus that is probably the most predictive all-in-one advanced box-score stat out there right now. Denominated in efficiency differential, ASPM is ideal for projecting a team's performance via a minute-weighted average of the individual ratings of its players.

Comparing the weighted average of their actual 2012 ASPMs to that expected differential, then, provides a measure of how much a team (and a coach) exceeded expectations, given the amount of talent on his roster.

Basketball Prospectus | Coach of the Year

Quote:
So by this metric, here is a truer ranking of the league's most excellent coaches:

Coach Tm Proj Actual Diff
----------------------------------------------------
Monty Williams NOH -9.32 -3.61 5.71
Tyrone Corbin UTA -4.79 0.24 5.04
Larry Drew ATL -2.71 2.27 4.98
Gregg Popovich SAS 1.85 6.62 4.77
Frank Vogel IND -0.72 3.06 3.77
Tom Thibodeau CHI 4.78 7.85 3.07
Rick Adelman MIN -4.43 -1.70 2.74
Dwane Casey TOR -6.74 -4.06 2.67
Scott Brooks OKC 4.20 6.87 2.67
Doug Collins PHI 1.79 4.20 2.41
Kevin McHale HOU -1.61 0.74 2.35
George Karl DEN 0.25 2.30 2.05
Alvin Gentry PHO -1.44 0.58 2.02
D'Antoni/Woodson NYK 0.97 2.70 1.73
Rick Carlisle DAL 0.38 1.85 1.47
Mark Jackson GSW -3.69 -3.06 0.64
Saunders/Wittman WAS -7.51 -7.00 0.51
Erik Spoelstra MIA 6.41 6.86 0.45
Lionel Hollins MEM 1.89 2.29 0.40
Byron Scott CLE -7.73 -7.45 0.28
Scott Skiles MIL 0.27 0.24 -0.04
Lawrence Frank DET -5.31 -5.53 -0.22
Vinny Del Negro LAC 3.84 3.16 -0.68
Westphal/Smart SAC -4.81 -5.79 -0.99
McMillan/Canales POR 1.53 0.54 -1.00
Doc Rivers BOS 3.56 2.11 -1.45
Avery Johnson NJN -3.82 -6.03 -2.21
Stan Van Gundy ORL 4.25 1.53 -2.72
Mike Brown LAL 5.99 2.31 -3.68
Paul Silas CHA -7.30 -14.28 -6.97
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