Its weird this year because anyone in the West can win really if they get the right matchups, or conversely get knocked out in round 1 with the wrong matchups.
In the East its a bit different as it's going to be a collision course with CHI MIA inevitably going to be meeting up. The only team I can see even being a threat to one of them is NY if NY could ever get their shit together, but its too unlikely to happen.
I think everyone in the West wants to avoid Memphis at all costs in round 1. If Gay and Randolph develop good chemistry before the playoffs, they can make the finals.