Alright - I've rolled the dice. If I don't get points tonight, there's no way for me to get the first place bonus point. If I get at least one point (which I need for a chance at the top spot) the people behind me cannot catch me, as I am already two points ahead of them. So my only concern is Shadowfax. We're currently tied, and if we stay tied, he wins the tie-breaker. So I've taken the under, he's taken the over. And the bonus point doesn't matter - whichever of us outpaces the other will be out of reach of everyone else. No tie-breakers here - whoever wins the night wins the round.
Now, what's more interesting is the gridlock for 10th place. Good luck to all involved!