probably 39 will be enough to squeeze in.
However, I'm not sure about Detroit resting - they will probably be fighting for #1, and Orlando is not that far behind them either. The orange games I didn't want to overanalyze them, probably Milwaukee at home is a high percentage for us, but Sacramento on the road is just as high against us ... Home and away with Charlotte is probably 50-50. Let's raise the percentage a bit, and say we get 4 of those 6 orange games. That will give us 6 "guaranteed" wins, for a total of 40 wins. However, against Atlanta/NJ - it's a very real chance of losing all 3. So it's still a significant chance of actually winning only 40 games. Even if we do make the playoffs, 40 wins would be EXTREMELY dissapointed and would call for dramatic changes, unless we pull a major upset in the playoffs.