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Old 04-28-2009, 02:05 AM   #52 (permalink)
is pounding the rock!

Captain Ding Dong
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Join Date: Jan 2008
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I should have said phase four.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Hopefully the fact that it hasn't caused deaths elsewhere is a good thing. Maybe it'll peter out at this stage.

Edit: Nevermind my previous statement...

Strictly speaking, Avian Influenza and SARS did not become pandemics because they were too good at killing their hosts.

"For a sustained pandemic, it needs to be able to maintain human-to-human contact without killing its host off," he said.

Avian influenza "never became a man-to-man disease," said Dr. Lo Wing-Luk, an infectious disease expert.

"Swine flu is already a man-to-man disease, which makes it much more difficult to manage . and swine flu appears much more infectious than SARS."

Last edited by Aar_Canada; 04-28-2009 at 02:30 AM.
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