Originally Posted by zachus22
You must just lick your sports betting chops come March Madness time, huh?
Pretty much like Christmas, there is so much public betting involved it really helps me. I've had some big months over the course of the NCAA Tournament.
Well Day 1 didn't start out how I wanted, however, luck was on my side as I passed out on the couch before I could get bets 2 and 3 in. Either way, it proves that I'm a bit rusty betting on the NBA, which, according to a lot of cappers, is the toughest sport to bet. Luckily I'm stubborn, which means I will figure out how to beat the NBA one way or another.
One thing I like about Sportsbook.com
is that they've put a "trend sheet" on each bet on their NBA Betting Lines Page. I was doing some research on sportsinsights.com and it seems like they are beginning to track line moves and winning % betting for and against (called fading) a line move. Obviously this seems huge to my success, so I'll be watching it closely. What I've found interesting is that so far no one has been profitable fading the first line move, which does not bode well for me
Therefore, I'm not sure how I'm going to bet on the NBA for the time being. Perhaps I'll just use my spidey senses and make some edumacated guesses.
First let me give a big WTF at the line in the SA/CHA game. The Spurs are ony a 5.5pt favorite at home against a sub .500 team. Sure, the Bobcats have won 6 in a row but their competition has been less than stellar including NYK, CHI, LAC, GS, SAC, and ATL. All in all that's a ridiculously easy stretch of games even if 4 of the 6 were on the road. Their previous two road games against Western Conference teams were a 10pt loss @ Phoenix and a 21 pt loss at Houston.
I really don't get this line, which usually makes me scratch my head, however I think the public could be weighting the Bobcats recent success a little too highly which might have allowed sportsbooks to set this line slightly lower than normal. However, I cannot bring myself to bet on this game. It seems like 3 out of 4 bets are on the Spurs yet the line moved down??? That's a huge question mark. I think it's best to just lay off this game.
I will bet the under, these teams have gone under all 5 times they've played, and it moved up 1.5pts, which makes me think it's an even better bet.
SA/CHA Under 179 1 unit
I am really interested to see the outcome of this game as with my old system I'd be betting 2-3 units on the Bobcats.
I plan on betting a lot on NCAA in the coming month, so I guess I'll start including that in this blog as well.