I think it's in the middle. Having a killer guy like lebron or kobe, really helps in close games. That being sad, even kobe has something like a 20% success on game winning shots, so in the end luck is a factor. We were actually a lot luckier last season, we've won most of our overtime games and a lot of very close games. This year was mostly a 50-50 affair. And we are a better team this year - which goes to show that luck is important.
As for Lebron - he's scary, but I'd still take my chances with him than Detroit/Boston who would destroy us. I don't even remember the last time we beat Detroit in a game where they cared about the outcome. Last April it was a semi-pre season game, so it doesn't count. I still hope the cavs can catch orlando, although games like last night will not help ...